the summer implosion begins(well,actually it started with shadows and battlship)

[pootboy]

 chill out kids.  it's not always about you .

[Scot Eric]

See, I told you we'd be disagreeing again real soon.

And being called a self-involved jackass by you is like Stalin being scolded by Hitler. I freely admit I am quite often both self-involved and absolutely a jackass as well, but it will take more than a few more ill-conceived posts on a message board before I can ascend to your throne.

[Aquaman71]

Sorry, but some of us do have a personal involvement in this.  Like, a brother and his family who live in Denver who usually make it to midnight premieres.  Couldn't get in touch with him for most of the day and i was kind of freaking out a little.  Sorry, if you feel that i was making it about me.  Sorry if you don't get how that was just unnecessary.  Most of all, sorry for making a comment on a thread after you and posting my opinion, should not have assumed that i should be able to sfate how i feel after you.  It won't happen again.  I understand the point about the movie's gross, it was just ill timed.

[pootboy]

the misdirected melodrama, combined with some warm franzia, got the better of me last night.  i've since toned down my comment.  regardless, this is a box office prediction thread, not a 'how i personally plan to solve violence in the world from the comfort of my own home' thread, so i might suggest you lower your expectations somewhat.

[pootboy]

and since no one asked, i might as well not tell you that i had an opportunity to see the flick last night and chose not to, since i could hardly sit there and enjoy a movie when i'd be thinking about aurora the whole time. 

your mad dash to shrill, self-righteous indignation is much more of a comment on you than it is me, boys.

[Scot Eric]

Oh shut up.

[pootboy]

da, comrade stalin.

(he killed, like, 5 times more people than hitler, incidentally.)

[Scot Eric]

BTW: despite the ill-timed nature of your prognostication, I reserve the right to mick you when you're wrong (as you may if I am -- though you hardly need permission).

Seig heil, herr Poot.

[kcekada]

Most of the more recent news reports I've heard, have stopped mentioning that the the Colorado massacre occurred in a showing of Dark Knight Rises. I wonder if Warner Bros is trying to disassociate their movie from the killings. --Sean

Obviously, the events in Colorado are going to have an impact on DKR -- and maybe all showings in general this weekend. Last evening, Inside Edition (not sure which studio owns it) was referring to the shooting as the Batman Movie Massacre.

[Scot Eric]

The Amazing Spider-Man opened on a Tuesday night (midnight Wednesday morning of July 4th, if we're gonna get technical).  By the time the weekend was over, it has made $137,022,258.

Right now it's around $230-233 million (it's the film most impacted by TDKR) in the US, and about $616 million worldwide.  Chances are it peters out in the $700 million dollar range worldwide (and at around $270-275 million in the US).

And what I said a while back:

As for The Amazing Spider-Man...

If it's good:

Opening with $120 million, overall domestic gross of $290 million, worldwide -- jacks the total up to the $800 million dollar marker.

The Dark Knight Rises opened on a Thursday night (midnight Friday morning July 20th, to be correct).  Of course, the horrific tragedy happened during this showing in Aurora, Colorado.  Although the majority of tickets were already pre-sold, this none-the-less did impact some showings of the film in certain regions (certainly in Colorado as well as across the country).

Despite this truly awful event, the film still grossed $160.8 million.

And what I said a while back:

If the reviews are stellar -- which probably would have leaked out in the weeks leading up to the film -- I'll put the opening weekend at $165 million.  Doesn't beat "You-Know-What", but does beat everything else that's ever existed.  And without the multi-million boost of that sweet 3D cash.

Bear in mind, when the Avengers busted box-office records, you should know the following:

52% of all tickets sold -- were for 3D showings.
7.7% of all tickets sold -- were for IMAX screenings.

The Dark Knight Rises set the record for 2D movies.  This is not insignificant -- based on the percentages, the additional 3D screening revenue (just the additional cost per ticket) accounted for a minimum of $35-40 million for The Avengers.  Whether the film would have played on all those additional screens if it had remained in a 2D format only -- is impossible to know.

Considering the horrors that happened Thursday night (and how most concede that had a definite impact on the box office, particularly on Saturday & Sunday's totals), plus this is a 2 hour and 45 minute journey that is anything but bright, fun, all that kid-friendly, amusing and colorful -- that weekend total is fucking astonishing.

PS: Stalin also had a better 'stache.

[pootboy]

i'm gracing you with a well-deserved 24 hour free gloat period, scottyboy.  (FTR, i never had anything against batman making shit-tons of money, i just didn't think it would happen without the ledger-effect.  definitely don't have the stomach to discuss anything outside of strict box office numbers at this point, so let's try to "keep it in the fairway", as they say.  ahl bee bock tomorrow, if my busy schej permits.)

[Scot Eric]

I've always had very few areas of expertise and even fewer talents. 
This has only gotten worse with age.

However, the one area that I've generally excelled at -- one that even sees a crossing over of such trivial knowledge & know-how -- tends to be the film business and box office.  It also used to cover the TV biz and ratings -- but that has become increasingly moot over the past decade due to cable, satellite and all the other delivery systems for programming. 

In light of the tragedy in Colorado and the ongoing story that only makes it that much more maddening and sad -- yeah, I'm not going to crow much about shit like this.  Still, I think it's fine to talk about (doesn't stop journalists and websites across the world, why should we be any different), and of course I enjoy analyzing it and playing "what if games".  Like: 

What if The Avengers hadn't been released in 3D?
What if The Dark Knight Rises HAD been released in 3D?

And of course, the elephant in the room that no one wants to mention -- but I will while acknowledging the unseemliness of it:

What if the tragedy hadn't occurred? (as far as the B.O numbers -- which isn't as remotely as important as the lives lost and those forever damaged by that madman) What would TDKR have done then? 

Articles over the weekend seemed to indicate earlier projections were placing it in the $180-190 million range and possibly more.  With no big ass 3D bump -- that's mind boggling indeed. 

But outside of that -- nah, not gonna gloat about it at all.  I figure my post quoting myself (I am a jackass) did a pretty good job of that already -- especially when compared to the other guesses.

[pootboy]

but i digress.  i'll go to 85 mil openings for both, topping off at the low 300's total domestic run.  both are milk from a pretty fucking old cow, and it'll show in the numbers.

well i was in the ballpark with spidey at least.  looks like it won't even break 300.  with bats i definitely failed to take into account a. to what degree people are creatures of habit, and b.  how much residual goodwill there was toward dark knight, despite the eminently questionable way in which it was generated.  (i still think it's kinda demented that a so-so movie had its box office doubled because a lead actor dying literally made pussies wet.  women are some seriously fucked up creatures. [cept you, stray kitty, o'course  ])

that said, i'll take it, because any movie that breaks the 370 domestic mark means that fucking abhorrent piece of shit "passion of the christ" drops down one more notch on the all-time charts.  was hoping to see it fall out of the top 20 this summer but we didn't quite make it.

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