the summer implosion begins(well,actually it started with shadows and battlship)

[SDcomics]

Not to mention, what else is truly competing for box office dollars this summer? MIB3?

I think, even though it's rated R, Ridley Scott's Prometheus will be huge. Pixar has a new movie coming out (Brave) and they usually do well.  I think Snow White and the Huntsmen might do Twilight and Hunger Games numbers.

Mike
(But other than that, yeah, it's going to be Super-Hero summer at the box office.)

[Scot Eric]

Okay, what the heck -- I'll toss a few speculative numbers in the mix too.  I've been proven right and even more often, I've been shown to be dead wrong.  So no claims of expertise whatsoever...just my guess as of today (though making predictions before time to monitor buzz, leaks, the hype build-up -- is both risky and not always the wisest move).

Pros: Outside of the sudden, Avengers fueled cynicism here, it's still considered the most anticipated film of the year by most of the moviegoing public; IMAX business (especially since an hour of the film was shot in IMAX) is likely to  be record-breaking; the "trust" factor than Nolan and the cast have engendered with the potential audience (outside of Hathaway -- but the female lead has been the "weak link" in almost all Batman films)

Cons: No 3D showings, which inflate box office numbers considerably; less of a fun factor than the colorful Avengers.  So less kids swarming to see it (which is more of an issue regarding repeat business).  Novelty wearing off -- the "been there/done that" issue.  Unavoidable comparisons to The Dark Knight (which is fair, albeit unfortunate) and The Avengers (which is unfair and small-minded).

Opening Weekend:

Scenario A:
If the reviews are stellar -- which probably would have leaked out in the weeks leading up to the film -- I'll put the opening weekend at $165 million.  Doesn't beat "You-Know-What", but does beat everything else that's ever existed.  And without the multi-million boost of that sweet 3D cash.

Scenario B:
If the reviews are solid...decent, if not superlative -- I'll put it at $145 million.  Not quite TDK numbers, but you also don't have The Joker as the villain (not to mention the INITIAL curiosity factor due to Ledger's death).

Scenario C:
If the reviews are middling and just plain so-so -- that also means the buzz leading up to the film in July was off-putting for some as well.  Thus, I'd lower the weekend numbers to $125 million.

Scenario D:
If the reviews suck, it'll still do a touch over $100 million...maybe even $105 million. 


Domestic Run:

Scenario A: $485 million
Scenario B: $420 million
Scenario C: $370 million
Scenario D: $320 million

International Run:

Scenario A: $760 million (Worldwide total: $1,245,000,000)
Scenario B: $680 million (Worldwide total: $1,100,000,000)
Scenario C: $520 million (Worldwide total: $890,000,000)
Scenario D: $400 million (Worldwide total: $720,000,000)

Of course, check back with me in July -- and I may want to revise my numbers a bit (up or down).

As for The Amazing Spider-Man...

If it's good:

Opening with $120 million, overall domestic gross of $290 million, worldwide -- jacks the total up to the $800 million dollar marker.

If it's not-so good:

Opening with $95 million, overall domestic gross of $200 million, worldwide -- elevates the number to around $700 million or so.

But with Spidey -- I'm just spitballing (and also don't care all that much, so didn't think about it all that hard).

Now I'll go back to lurking and plotting...

[SDcomics]

But..but..Days of Thunder was an amazing film.

Dude.

Mike
(I got up and walked out when Robert Duvall started talking to the car.)

[JSayonara]

Dude.

Mike
(I got up and walked out when Robert Duvall started talking to the car.)

Heh, I was wondering if anybody would take me seriously, if I didn't use a smiley..sorry.

Seriously..NASCAR?

I'm a Brit, I'd rather watch a film about paint drying or the mating habits of the lesser spotted fuckwit beetle than a movie about cars that go around and around and around in a fucking circle.

Seriously, what's the appeal?

Plus, I despise Tom Cruise.

[SDcomics]

Oh, I know you were being facetious.  That movie was horrible.  One of the few times I got up and walked out of a movie theater before the credits rolled.

[Gardner Grayle]

Yeah J.  This is much better than Nascar...

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Straight from the UK.

[JSayonara]

 

Fuck, if you'd have brought up Premier League Football or Formula One..

But Caravan Racing?
That's a bunch of cider piss-head's, fucking about in a field on a bank holiday weekend.

Nascar is a multi-million dollar sport, where very fast cars drive in circles for, like, eighty laps in the name of entertainment.

I ask again..WHAT..THE...FUCK?

 

[Gardner Grayle]

The sport of kings chavs.    And pikies.

[JSayonara]

The sport of kings chavs.    And pikies.

Almost, but not quite.

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And Pikey's are all about the Bareknuckle Boxing and the "dags".

Do you guys even have gyppo's?

[Gardner Grayle]

Irish Travelers.  In pretty low numbers.

[fishmilkshake]

Scenario A: $485 million
Scenario B: $420 million
Scenario C: $370 million
Scenario D: $320 million

Sheesh! Just pick a number 

[Scot Eric]

Sorry, I thought giving a foundation of reasons to base my prediction upon would make for more interesting reading.  Clearly I was wrong.  Oopsie.

[pootboy]

well i was innerested, if it's any consolation.  thinking more about the bat franchise, it occurred to me that there was no conceivable way dark knight would have particularly outperformed batman begins in and of itself.  that's just not how sequels work, for middlin' received reboots.  (begins petered out at 200mil, right?)  that means that it was heath ledger's corpse that tripled the gross, and precious little else.  it added that element of real-life drama that brought in the chicks.  and when you get the chicks, you get the gross.  titanic, avatar, the pirates movies, the harry potter's... all chick driven.  (and most of it shitty as balls).  but without a body, batman goes back from whence he came, 200-300 mil territory, i'm thinkin. 

[pootboy]

SD, i'm pretty sure "underoos" isn't fucking hyphenated.  you of all people.

well at least this time we have a difference of opinion that will actually get settled, assuming the world doesn't end before september.  i wouldn't be COMPLETELY shocked to see 100 mil gross for both opening weekend, and both spidey and bats are kid (but not historically chick) approved any way you slice it, which brings in some bucks, but i'm seein alot of girlfriends going "what, you want me to sit though ANOTHER spider-man origin?  when you wouldn't even take me to "sex and the city 2?  eat a dick, sweetie."  batman will fare a squinch better, but without the morbid romance of a dead star to tickle vajes, that's gonna be a dude's night out too.

[pootboy]

oh i'll also go on record as saying this summer, gross-wise, has officially blown it's wad.  i think every single tentpole flick will suffer in the shadow of avengers, especially considering how creaky the properties getting trotted out are.  MIB3 will have the lowest grosses of the franchise.  that shit is just plain played out.  prometheus is too hard sci-fi for the masses, and i doubt alot of tweeners out there even know what it's a prequel to.  the kiddie offerings are weak, no shrek or toy story juggernauts in sight.  what's left?  when the smoke settles, this summer will be down significantly from last.  lotta studios really reaching the dregs of the blockbuster bottle about now (battleship, anyone?)

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